On Piracy

November 18, 2008 9:54 am

On a recent slashdot thread, there was some discussion about the issue of piracy. (The thread was specifically referring to Xbox360 modchips, and piracy in the gaming industry). One commenter in particular had the most insightful thoughts on why computer piracy exists. I’m going to re-post it, verbatim, here (after the jump):

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French Revolution and Modern America

September 28, 2008 9:27 pm

A while back, Melissa and I watched the movie “Marie Antoinette“, starring Kirsten Dunst as the eponymous role.

I thought the movie was pretty good — Melissa was a bit more critical, but she disapproves of most things. ( :) )

For those of you completely unaware of historical references, the movie was about the brief period of time before the French Revolution began. In a nutshell, the French Revolution occurred because the wealthy ruling class was so far divided (both financially and socially) from the servant / lower class that a Peasant uprising occurred. Other factors believed to be involved as causes were:

  • the exorbitant national debt of france (partly due to Louis XV & XVI’s warmongering / overseas military activities)
  • the “conspicuous consumption of the noble class…despite the financial burden of the populace”
  • “High unemployment and bread prices”
  • The ineptitude of the leader, Louis XVI, to deal with any of these (and many other) problems

[Source]

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Why Box Office Numbers aren’t entirely accurate (Economically)

May 6, 2007 8:23 am

We’ve all seen the headlines “James Pauley and the attack of the killer mutant cyborg sheep: Part IV sweeps the box office with the biggest opening day of all time!”

Apparently, we, the simple-minded public, are supposed to be wowed and awed (and cajoled, via bandwagon propaganda) into seeing the movie. One thing I’ve noticed though: It seems everytime a new blockbuster movie comes out, it’s always “the biggest opening day of all time!” and only by a little bit. It got me thinking “I wonder what the biggest opening day was, of the top 10 opening days, when you adjust them all for inflation?”

Inflation for those of you that don’t know, is the creeping death of our almighty dollar. Every year, on average, our dollars are worth 3.2% than the year before. (This means, among other things, that the minimum wage which was stuck at $5.25 for several years, is actually only worth about $3 / hr when you adjust for inflation). What inflation also does, however, is skew price comparisons. We’ve all heard our grandparents say “I can’t believe how expensive ____ is! When I was a boy, I only paid a nickel for it!” More often than not, the price has only changed by a penny or two (AFTER ADJUSTMENT), and sometimes, such as in the case of eggs or milk, it’s actually CHEAPER (adjusted) than it was when Grandpa was a wee lad.

Back to movies.

So, here’s the data I’m working with, pulled from BoxOfficeMojo:

Movie Opening Day Date
Spiderman 3 $59,000,000 5/4/2007
Pirates of the Carribean II $55,830,600 7/7/2006
Star Wars III $50,013,859 5/19/2005
X-Men III $45,102,265 5/26/2006
Spiderman 2 $44,442,604 5/22/2004
Harry Potter: Goblet of Fire $40,118,363 11/18/2005
Spiderman 1 $39,406,872 5/3/2002
Harry Potter: Prisoner of Azkaban $38,268,295 6/4/2004
The Matrix Reloaded $37,508,303 5/15/2003
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King $34,450,834 12/17/2003
Aside: I found it interesting that every one of the movies on this top 10 is part of a series, or the whole series in Spidermans case.

Calculating the CPI:

Ok, this is where a VERY SMALL amount of math comes in. It requires consulting a table, setting up a very simple proportion, and doing some multiplication. A calculator helps, but isn’t totally necessary. (Or, and you are going to LOVE me for this, you can use the BLS’s Inflation Calculator!!!)

First, we need to get our CPI numbers. CPI is an acronym for “Consumer Price Index”. It’s calculated, and maintained, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). There’s lots of information on that page, but the real meat-and-bones of it is in the US City Average, All Urban Consumers table. Just trust me on that.

Ok, to use this table: Along the lefthandside, down in a column, is the years, stretching from as far back as 1913 (your grandpa / great-grandpa’s time) to March 07. (April will be up soon, they’re generally a month behind.) The columns to the right of the year column are individual months, all twelve of them, followed by an annual average. Doing individual month comparisons are generally more accurate than annual average. So to find the CPI for a given month, we find the row containing the year we want, and then find the column corresponding to the month we want, and Bingo! There it is. The CPI for that month.

For your own trivia, I’ll walk you through one of the top 10 listed. (Bear in mind, since we don’t have May 07’s CPI, this won’t be QUITE as accurate as it could be, but it should be pretty close!) Let’s do #10: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.

Return of the King came out in December 2003. The CPI for that month was 184.3. The most recent CPI is March 2007, which is 205.352. So now we create a ratio of those two dates to get their CPI factor. (205.352 / 184.3 = 1.114053). Now, we multiply that factor times the raw (nominal) price from the past. (1.114053 x 34,450,834 = $38,380,060.97). So the Return of the King’s opening day ticket sales, in today’s dollars, is 4 million dollars more! That’s substantial!

Since I don’t expect you to do all the calculations, I’ll do them all here. (Since we don’t have May’s CPI - I’m estimating it at 208.72. The months previous have both increased approximately 1.7 each month. So two more months = +3.4)

Movie Raw Sales Date CPI CPI-Factor Adjusted Sales
Spiderman 3 $59,000,000 5/4/2007 208.72 1(*) $59,000,000
Pirates of the Carribean II $55,830,600 7/7/2006 203.5 1.025651106 $57,262,716.62
Star Wars III $50,013,859 5/19/2005 194.6 1.072559096 $53,642,819.38
X-Men III $45,102,265 5/26/2006 202.5 1.030716049 $46,487,628.40
Spiderman 2 $44,442,604 5/22/2004 189.1 1.103754627 $49,053,729.81
Harry Potter: Goblet of Fire $40,118,363 11/18/2005 197.6 1.056275304 $42,376,036.06
Spiderman 1 $39,406,872 5/3/2002 179.8 1.160845384 $45,745,285.45
Harry Potter: Prisoner of Azkaban $38,268,295 6/4/2004 189.7 1.100263574 $42,105,211.03
The Matrix Reloaded $37,508,303 5/15/2003 183.5 1.137438692 $42,663,395.11
LotR: Return of the King $34,450,834 12/17/2003 184.3 1.132501356 $39,015,616.24
(*): Current month prices have not inflated yet, so their CPI factors will always be 1.

Just because I’m a glut for punishment, here’s that table again, sorted:

Movie Raw Sales Date CPI CPI-Factor Adjusted Sales
Spiderman 3 $59,000,000 5/4/2007 208.72 1(*) $59,000,000
Pirates of the Carribean II $55,830,600 7/7/2006 203.5 1.025651106 $57,262,716.62
Star Wars III $50,013,859 5/19/2005 194.6 1.072559096 $53,642,819.38
Spiderman 2 $44,442,604 5/22/2004 189.1 1.103754627 $49,053,729.81
X-Men III $45,102,265 5/26/2006 202.5 1.030716049 $46,487,628.40
Spiderman 1 $39,406,872 5/3/2002 179.8 1.160845384 $45,745,285.45
The Matrix Reloaded $37,508,303 5/15/2003 183.5 1.137438692 $42,663,395.11
Harry Potter: Goblet of Fire $40,118,363 11/18/2005 197.6 1.056275304 $42,376,036.06
Harry Potter: Prisoner of Azkaban $38,268,295 6/4/2004 189.7 1.100263574 $42,105,211.03
LotR: Return of the King $34,450,834 12/17/2003 184.3 1.132501356 $39,015,616.24
(*): Current month prices have not inflated yet, so their CPI factors will always be 1.

Only three big differences, rank-wise. But then again, all of those movies are all from the past decade. I’ll leave you with this last comparison, for “all-time highest-grossing-movies”. Movieweb (with their annoying verizon ads) lists the top 1000 grossing movies of all time. At number 1 is “Titanic” (12/1997, $600,788,000), number 2 is “Star Wars IV: A New Hope” (5/1977, $460,988,000), and number 74 is “Gone with the Wind” ($198,655,000, 12/1939).

Doing the same thing again:

Movie Gross Date CPI CPI Factor Adjusted Gross
Gone with the Wind $198,655,000 12/15/1939 14 14.90857143 $2,961,662,257.14
Star Wars IV $460,998,000 5/25/1977 60.3 3.461359867 $1,595,679,976.12
Titanic $600,788,000 12/19/1997 161.3 1.293986361 $777,411,477.74

I rest my case.